Mag 3 Earnings on Tap
The PMI delivered a worst-case scenario for stocks with manufacturing going into “recession” (below 50 on the poll) and prices still cranking higher, albeit down from March’s pace. Stagflation is coming into view, or maybe there’s a big commodities selloff coming… The market totally ignored the implications though because it is in rally mode.
Tesla reports after the bell and it’s still an important stock, but not as critical for the major indexes anymore. The big earnings are META on Wednesday after the bell, then Microsoft and Google after Thursday’s close. Next Tuesday after the bell is Amazon and Lilly. Also, Uber, the largest component by far in the Dow Transports. Then Apple next week Thursday.
Crude oil and bonds are flirting with setting new lows for April. The 2s10s (not pictured) sits in the mid 30s. The big bear gets going when that starts steepening for good.
Energy hit my target yesterday, but crude hasn’t cracked.
Healthcare remains at a key support area. XLV 0.00%↑
I added the dome on here to highlight something, not at a trade signal. Here’s JNJ and UNH, two major holdings after LLY.
ABBV 0.00%↑ looks like XLV, MRK 0.00%↑ has popped higher but hit resistance, but the real story here is LLY 0.00%↑
That’s a logarithmic chart, but it looks like a linear chart because LLY has gained an annualized 27 percent off the 2008 low.
Does META 0.00%↑ look like two bells on the monthly? April isn’t over yet though…
Since I already have short exposure, a dream scenario is META misses on earnings or guidance after hours tomorrow. Another dream though, is it spikes to the resistance line 26 percent away.
Copper miners are forming an ugly monthly candle too. The 2008 top came in May.
This is FCX 0.00%↑ back in 2008 since COPX doesn’t have enough history. Kinda looks like META right now, no? FCX beat revenue today, but the stock is selling off with copper down.
I was in the deflation camp for the better part of 20 years starting from before the 2008 crisis. I do think the inflation camp has an argument based on my political read of the USA, but I don’t hear many people talking about even temporary deflation from here, via oil and copper crashes, and gold repeating the 2008 analog that was ultimately super bullish.