Running Up That Hill

The FTSE and UK ETF are firing blow-off top signals. These have come at major turning points in recent history. Caveat, these also come at the start of major bull markets. Depends on how you classify this move…I lean bearish.

Island reversal in bonds. PPI and CPI are next week. This ETF is 3 to 7 year treasuries.

A pattern on GDX 0.00%↑ . First went higher, second was a double-top, here could be a double top or a slightly higher high. As with IEI 0.00%↑ , CPI is next week and could dominate the short-term moves.

Utilities XLU 0.00%↑ A perfect move here would be a melt-up following weaker CPI data next week that lifts bonds.

The next move in silver will be a doozy.

Allow me a WAG, drawn on SLV 0.00%↑ . The timing would put this breakout around March or April next year. March has seen three rounds of monetary intervention in 2009, 2020 and 2023…and if a major bear unfolds this year…that’s at least one spot I’d look for a major sell-off to terminate.

Here shows the time from the break-in to the pattern (only seen in hindsight) to the low. Perfect symmetry would put a breakout in December 2024.

CPI could be a major event next week. If it came in soft, it would trigger a bond rally and melt-up some assets such as utilities. That’d be a great reversal trade spot because it’s already firing a top warning.