One would think rate cuts help REITs all else being equal, yet massive topping patterns persist and are developing towards completion.
I haven’t investigated any of these beyond the charts. SBAC is one I’ve tracked for a long time. That target was made years ago, when the red horizontal first looked as if it might break. The pattern hasn’t changed since then.
Digital Realty, not in the same business lines, has held up far better.
A bullish looking chart among bears:
Not quite as bullish, but beaten down:
Simplest bear case: rising rates will make government and corporate bonds more competitive with equity.
Most equity investors believe stocks beat bonds as interest rate rise and bond prices fall, not contemplating the level of interest rate at which bonds are the absolute better buy.
If “the market” bids up stocks because they’re not bonds, but at some point bonds become the absolute better buy and (nightmare scenario) bonds aren’t done falling at that point, the entire move up in stocks was “wrong.” Stocks must “catch-down.” History says they’ll price it all in fairly quickly, with an overshoot.
The telecom guys love to lever up as much as they can, especially if lower yields are offered.